TSLA covered-call plan

Task LEDGER-TSLA-CC · prepared Oct 21, 2026 (JST), revised the same day after an adversarial review using market data as of the Oct 20 US close · report only, not a trade instruction

Labels: VERIFIED read from a data connector or exchange quote · CALCULATED computed by us · ASSUMPTION a model input we chose · NEWSLETTER from Kevin's newsletter and broker emails, not verified

The short version

Don't sell any new calls before tonight's earnings. Tesla reports Wed Oct 21 after the close (4:00 PM ET, 5:00 AM JST Thu Oct 22). VERIFIED The first new sale comes after the report, once you've seen real post-report prices.
Choose ONE account for the lot you'll let go, and settle the existing Oct 30 $400 call first. That call sits on a taxable lot and spans the report. If the IRA lot is the one to sell, buy the Oct 30 call back. Otherwise two lots could go. If the taxable lot is the one to sell, let the Oct 30 call ride, and open no IRA call.
If the sale must happen, calls can't promise it. The only sure way is to sell the 100 shares outright, or sell an in-the-money call. An at-the-money-ish call (about 0.40–0.45 delta, about 30 days) gets assigned only some of the time. The option market prices roughly a 1-in-3 chance per month for the Nov 20 $390 call CALCULATED.
Calls on the lots you keep always carry some chance of losing those shares. Keep it small: 0.10 delta, 30–45 days, strikes $420 or higher, at most 2–3 lots, never through earnings, and set a buyback budget in advance. If keeping every other share is a must, sell no calls on them.
The Dec 18 $280 puts can sell 500 shares by themselves. If TSLA closes under $280 on Dec 18, they get exercised automatically and 500 shares are sold. Before expiry, decide whether to sell them or give a do-not-exercise instruction.
Backtest, 2015–2026, model-priced, revised: holding TSLA returned 31.6%/yr. Every covered-call version trailed it, by 1.8–12.3 points a year (2.8–7.6 for the simple hold-to-expiry versions). Drawdowns were smaller: −59% to −72%, against −74% for holding. Skipping earnings did not reliably help returns; it depended on the period. It's in the plan to limit gap and assignment risk, not to add return. Covered calls came out ahead only if option prices ran about 25% or more above realized volatility.

1. TSLA positions (from the Finance connector)

Share counts and options only. Account numbers and cost basis are left off this public page. VERIFIED (Plaid/Schwab via Finance, read Oct 21 JST)

Account type	TSLA shares	Full 100-share lots	Open TSLA options	Free lots for new calls
Taxable brokerage (main)	511.49	5	Short 1× Oct 30 2026 $400 call · Long 5× Dec 18 2026 $280 puts · Long 1× Jun 17 2027 $220 call · Long 1× Dec 17 2027 $290 call · Long 1× Dec 15 2028 $320 call	4 (5 after the Oct 30 call is closed or expires)
401(k) brokerage window (PCRA)	212.36	2	none	0 until the plan confirms it allows covered calls
Traditional IRA	168.84	1	Long 2× Jun 17 2027 $350 calls	1
Roth IRA	33	0	none	0
Total	925.69	8		5 confirmed now (6 after Oct 30); +2 if the PCRA allows it

At the Oct 20 close, that call was quoted $5.40 bid / $5.50 ask (Cboe delayed). Buying it back at the ask would lock in about $775 (≈58.5%) before fees. That's an unrealized gain at a stale quote, not money kept. At TSLA $450, the call would owe at least $5,000.

Total TSLA exposure is bigger than the share count. Using Cboe deltas from Oct 20, the long calls add about 388 share-equivalents. Net of the puts and the short call, total exposure is about 1,261 share-equivalents against 925.69 actual shares. The IRA alone is about 304, so selling 100 IRA shares leaves about 204 there CALCULATED. Selling one lot trims concentration only a little. The $280 puts pay off only below $280, through Dec 18, on 500 shares. On those 500 shares, that leaves about $46,900 of decline from today's price to $280 before they help.

2. Market picture right now

Item	Value	Source
Close Oct 20	$373.71 (+1.5%); after hours ~$378.9	TradingView, Cboe VERIFIED
SMA 10 / 20 / 50 / 200	$371.49 / $369.71 / $361.11 / $387.26	TradingView bars CALCULATED
Trend	Above the 10, 20 and 50-day averages, below the 200-day. The 50-day is still under the 200-day (death cross). Daily RSI 53.7, ADX 12.8 (weak trend).	TradingView VERIFIED
1-month range	$345.88 (Sep 30 low) to $388.56 (Oct 9 high). 52-week: $297.38–$498.83	TradingView VERIFIED
Kevin's alert lines	$345.88 support (= Sep 30 low), $359 (A1 line), $386.83 invalidation, $390 risk line	earlier exit plan
Implied volatility (pre-report, Oct 20)	IV30 45.8%. Front week ~89%, Nov 20 ~45%, Dec 18 ~42%, Jan 15 ~41%. All of these include tonight's earnings event.	Cboe delayed VERIFIED
Dec IV with the earnings event removed (rough)	About 37%, if you take out an ~8% one-day event	CALCULATED (estimate; check real post-report quotes)
Realized volatility (30-day)	32.1%	CALCULATED. We have no IV history, so no true IV rank.
Expected earnings move	About ±6.5% by Fri Oct 23 (the $375 straddle costs ~$24.25)	Cboe CALCULATED. Not a cap; past moves ran from −16% to +20%.

What that means: after the report, December IV may land near 1.15× realized volatility. That's about the backtest's base case, and in the base case covered calls trailed holding. Treat premium as modest, not a windfall.

Levels and views from Kevin's newsletters NEWSLETTER

3. Calendar and catalysts

4. The rules

A. Before every sale

B. The one lot you want to let go

C. The lots you keep (taxable, plus the 401(k) if allowed)

D. The long puts and long calls

Date (US)	Event	Why it matters
Wed Oct 21, after close (4:00 PM ET / 5:00 AM JST Oct 22)	Tesla Q3 earnings, confirmed VERIFIED. Consensus EPS ~$0.45, revenue ~$28.1B	Gap risk. IV should drop after the report.
Oct 20 onward	Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to explore a merger; Musk says "not a certainty" VERIFIED (Reuters/WSJ headlines via TradingView). Barclays sees an announcement before the annual meeting as possible NEWSLETTER	The biggest upside-gap risk. An announcement can gap the stock overnight before you can react. Deal terms can also change what an option delivers (an OCC adjustment).
Wed Oct 28 (2:00 PM ET / 3:00 AM JST Oct 29)	FOMC rate decision. Rate 4.00% VERIFIED	Hot CPI/PPI and a ~5.1% 10-year yield. Futures price ~74% odds of a December hike (CME FedWatch per CBS, Oct 16; not re-checked)
Thu Oct 29	Q3 GDP (advance), core PCE	Inflation read
Tue Nov 3 / Fri Nov 6	Midterms, JOLTS / jobs report	Macro volatility
Tue Nov 10 / Fri Nov 13	October CPI (September came in at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected NEWSLETTER) / PPI	Rate path
Thu Dec 3	Tesla annual meeting NEWSLETTER	Possible merger or product news
December	EU vote on FSD (slipped to December) NEWSLETTER	Possible upside headline
Fri Dec 18	The $280 puts expire	Auto-exercise if TSLA is under $280. Decide beforehand.
Late Jan 2027 (est.)	Q4 earnings ASSUMPTION. Treat as unknown until Tesla confirms the date.	No calls open across it

Step	What
1. Pick the account	Traditional IRA: no tax when it sells, and the cash stays in the IRA to rebalance. It does shrink the IRA's TSLA to about 69 shares plus the two $350 calls. Taxable: creates a taxable gain, and lot choice matters. The 401(k) only if the plan allows options. Pick one.
2. Settle the Oct 30 call	IRA chosen → buy back the Oct 30 $400 call (before tonight's close if you want no earnings exposure). Taxable chosen → the Oct 30 call can be the disposal call. Open no IRA call while it's live.
3a. Sure way	Sell 100 shares (limit order) on a day you like the price. Or sell an in-the-money call, which collects more premium and is very likely to be assigned.
3b. Call way (not guaranteed)	After the report, sell 1 call at about 0.40–0.45 delta, about 30 days out (Nov 20), at a strike you're happy to sell at. Pre-report, the Nov 20 $390 was about 0.41 delta and $13.35 bid. The market-implied chance it finishes in the money is about 36% CALCULATED. That's a model figure, not a forecast. If it isn't assigned, repeat for Dec 18, then Jan 15 (before Q4 earnings), at or above your minimum price. Don't promise yourself a date. If the deadline matters, switch to 3a.
4. After assignment	Stop. Don't open another disposal call. Never roll the disposal call up.

Tax flags (not tax advice).

An assignment in the taxable account is a sale at the strike plus the premium, and lot choice matters. Ask Schwab whether you can pick the lot at assignment. If not, buy back the call and sell the chosen lot yourself.
"Qualified covered call" status depends on days to expiry (more than 30), how far in the money the call is, and other conditions. It has to be checked contract by contract. A Nov 20 call sold Oct 22/23 is only 28–29 days.
Long puts, long calls, stock and short calls held together can fall under the tax straddle rules (deferred losses, paused holding periods).
Buying back calls at a loss and selling similar ones, including buying TSLA in the IRA, can raise wash-sale questions.
None of this applies to sales inside the IRA or 401(k), but those accounts can still trigger a wash sale on taxable losses.

Get a tax professional to review a dated lot-by-lot schedule before acting in the taxable account.

5. Backtest (revised)

How it was done: TSLA daily closes, split-adjusted (TradingView, Jan 2, 2015 – Oct 20, 2026). We have no historical option prices, so this is a model test, not a replay of real historical option trades. Black-Scholes pricing ASSUMPTION:

Setting	Earnings	Management	Per year	vs hold	Premium / yr	Net option P&L / yr	ITM at expiry	Time covered	Max drawdown
0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Sell through	Hold to expiry	28.8%	-2.8 pts	18.8%	-7.2%	23 of 123	100%	-64%
0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Hold to expiry	24.7%	-6.9 pts	12.9%	-10.3%	18 of 95	78%	-68%
0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back at 50% profit, re-sell next day	20.4%	-11.2 pts	27.2%	-16.5%	26 of 31	71%	-61%
0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back if ITM in last 7 days, re-sell next day	24.5%	-7.2 pts	13.3%	-9.5%	2 of 71	75%	-70%
0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Sell through	Hold to expiry	28.3%	-3.3 pts	31.7%	-9.6%	34 of 123	100%	-59%
0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Hold to expiry	24.0%	-7.6 pts	21.9%	-12.1%	31 of 95	78%	-66%
0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back at 50% profit, re-sell next day	19.3%	-12.3 pts	41.6%	-18.5%	33 of 36	72%	-59%
0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back if ITM in last 7 days, re-sell next day	21.4%	-10.3 pts	22.9%	-13.6%	0 of 57	74%	-68%
0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Sell through	Hold to expiry	27.1%	-4.5 pts	11.1%	-9.8%	12 of 87	100%	-68%
0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Hold to expiry	26.7%	-5.0 pts	5.4%	-6.9%	11 of 48	56%	-71%
0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back at 50% profit, re-sell next day	25.9%	-5.8 pts	14.8%	-9.6%	14 of 14	56%	-68%
0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back if ITM in last 7 days, re-sell next day	28.9%	-2.7 pts	5.9%	-4.1%	1 of 39	58%	-70%
0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Sell through	Hold to expiry	26.5%	-5.1 pts	6.8%	-9.1%	7 of 87	100%	-70%
0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Hold to expiry	28.3%	-3.3 pts	3.3%	-4.8%	8 of 48	56%	-72%
0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back at 50% profit, re-sell next day	22.5%	-9.1 pts	9.8%	-12.6%	12 of 13	57%	-70%
0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip (sell day after report)	Buy back if ITM in last 7 days, re-sell next day	29.9%	-1.8 pts	3.6%	-2.8%	0 of 42	58%	-71%

Premium and Net option P&L are each cycle's dollars divided by the portfolio value at that cycle's start, summed per year. Net = premium minus what was paid at expiry or buyback. They're not additive to CAGR. "ITM at expiry" counts only calls held to expiry; early buybacks are excluded.

Results by period

Stress tests (2015–2026)

Reviewed by Astra (Codex xhigh) on Oct 21, 2026 (JST)

An adversarial review of the code, conclusions and rules raised 22 findings. We accepted all of them and fixed them, or disclosed where we couldn't fix (no historical option chains). What changed:

Period	Setting	Earnings	Covered call / yr	Hold / yr	Difference	Max drawdown (CC / hold)
2015–2019	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	18.9%	13.6%	+5.2 pts	-50% / -54%
2015–2019	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	10.3%	13.6%	-3.3 pts	-51% / -54%
2015–2019	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	21.7%	13.6%	+8.1 pts	-49% / -54%
2015–2019	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	8.5%	13.6%	-5.1 pts	-51% / -54%
2015–2019	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	17.1%	13.6%	+3.5 pts	-47% / -54%
2015–2019	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	8.4%	13.6%	-5.2 pts	-48% / -54%
2015–2019	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Through	16.8%	13.6%	+3.2 pts	-42% / -54%
2015–2019	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	8.2%	13.6%	-5.4 pts	-45% / -54%
2020–2021	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	119.0%	254.2%	-135.2 pts	-58% / -61%
2020–2021	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	264.9%	254.2%	+10.7 pts	-52% / -61%
2020–2021	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	110.9%	254.2%	-143.3 pts	-57% / -61%
2020–2021	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	256.0%	254.2%	+1.8 pts	-51% / -61%
2020–2021	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	120.4%	254.2%	-133.8 pts	-56% / -61%
2020–2021	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	173.1%	254.2%	-81.1 pts	-48% / -61%
2020–2021	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Through	103.0%	254.2%	-151.2 pts	-52% / -61%
2020–2021	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	160.1%	254.2%	-94.1 pts	-45% / -61%
2022–2026	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	1.7%	-1.4%	+3.1 pts	-70% / -73%
2022–2026	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	-5.7%	-1.4%	-4.3 pts	-72% / -73%
2022–2026	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	2.2%	-1.4%	+3.6 pts	-68% / -73%
2022–2026	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	-6.1%	-1.4%	-4.7 pts	-71% / -73%
2022–2026	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	4.7%	-1.4%	+6.1 pts	-65% / -73%
2022–2026	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	2.4%	-1.4%	+3.8 pts	-68% / -73%
2022–2026	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Through	7.4%	-1.4%	+8.8 pts	-61% / -73%
2022–2026	0.30 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	3.3%	-1.4%	+4.7 pts	-66% / -73%

Test	Setting	Earnings	Per year	vs hold
IV=1.0x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	24.0%	-7.6 pts
IV=1.0x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	25.9%	-5.7 pts
IV=1.0x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	23.1%	-8.6 pts
IV=1.0x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	24.2%	-7.4 pts
IV=1.0x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	23.5%	-8.1 pts
IV=1.0x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	21.0%	-10.7 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	26.5%	-5.1 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	28.3%	-3.3 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	27.1%	-4.5 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	26.7%	-5.0 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	28.8%	-2.8 pts
IV=1.1x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	24.7%	-6.9 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	30.0%	-1.6 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	31.1%	-0.6 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	32.1%	+0.5 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	30.5%	-1.1 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	36.9%	+5.3 pts
IV=1.25x RV	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	29.7%	-1.9 pts
slippage 10%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	26.1%	-5.6 pts
slippage 10%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	28.1%	-3.5 pts
slippage 10%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	26.4%	-5.2 pts
slippage 10%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	26.3%	-5.3 pts
slippage 10%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	27.5%	-4.1 pts
slippage 10%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	23.8%	-7.8 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	25.9%	-5.7 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	28.3%	-3.3 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	26.3%	-5.4 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	26.7%	-5.0 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	27.6%	-4.0 pts
earnings jump 6%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	24.7%	-6.9 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	27.2%	-4.4 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	28.3%	-3.3 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	28.1%	-3.6 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	26.7%	-5.0 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	30.3%	-1.4 pts
earnings jump 10%	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	24.7%	-6.9 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	25.8%	-5.8 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	31.6%	+0.0 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	26.0%	-5.6 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	30.7%	-0.9 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	28.8%	-2.8 pts
same-day RV (v1 timing)	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	27.1%	-4.5 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Through	24.6%	-7.0 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.10 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	26.5%	-5.1 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Through	24.9%	-6.8 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.15 delta / 45 DTE	Skip	25.3%	-6.3 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Through	25.4%	-6.2 pts
any-day expiry (v1 cadence)	0.20 delta / 30 DTE	Skip	31.1%	-0.5 pts